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Thanks for posting Lang. It makes fascinating reading,
Many years ago I read somewhere that the American planners were forecasting around a million US casualties to take the home islands and estimated 10 times as many Japanese would also become casualties. It looks like those figures were conservative.
Clearly things could have been infinitely worse than what eventuated.
The fire raids had been hugely destructive and in one night 300 bombers burnt out 40 square kilometres of Tokyo with 100,000 dead and 1,000,000 homeless. Doolittle was planning for a force of 1,000 B29s for continued operations. The preparations were being made.
Another wild card was the possibility of the Russians becoming involved if the Americans had bogged down as they also declared war on Japan towards the end and were very keen to seize territory. Some they grabbed at the time is still in dispute today.
What could have happened is horrendous in the extreme and makes the two nuclear strikes look pale in comparison. They were exactly what was needed.
I now also understand why Macarthur took a softly, softly approach and didn't depose the emperor.

David