Heads Up: Littlefield Auction Live "NOW"

[Hanno Spoelstra]

Originally Posted by Jim Burrill

I am a bit flabbergasted...

I was only able to drop in to the live auction feed sporadically during the afternoon. Saw the Churchill ARVE sell for US$ 34,000 and later heard the Humber Mk4 sell for US$106,000!

Since i have the only other Humber Mk4 in the US, I am pleased that the sale price sets some kind of data-point for the vehicle worth (not that I have any intention of selling!) But to see a whole Churchill go for a third of an armoured car???

Jim,

Like Chris said, these (or any other) auction results are not the norm for setting values. All it really says that last Saturday there was one guy willing to pay 106k for that particular Humber, and another guy willing to pay 34k for that particular Churchill. Next auction/sale it could be the other way round, one cannot really tell or deduct and average value from these results. That only works when a statistically relevant number of vehicles are assessed against recorded sales prices and condition.

H.

[Jim Burrill]

All true,
But when so few vehicles of any particular type are for sale, the prices for the most recent sales carry a lot of weight.

My wife sells houses. Part of the sale process is to pull the data from recent sales of similar houses in a specific geographic region. If the last sale was from a Sheriff's Sale, or foreclosure, that low price has an adverse effect on the comp values.

I think with our AFV hobby, it goes the other way... A high sales price of one, colors the expectations of the ones that follow.

[chris vickery]

Originally Posted by Jim Burrill

I think with our AFV hobby, it goes the other way... A high sales price of one, colors the expectations of the ones that follow.

This is exactly my point Jim, that too many people out there will believe that this will become stone cold fact.

As Hanno suggests, one auction with single digit examples of a said product cannot accurately affirm value for future sales, although there will be persons out there that will hold this opinion that if it sold for X value thats what all subsequent sales will be.
In the statistics business, usually the highest and lowest numbers are scratched and the middle values averaged to obtain realistic prices. This goes for real estate as well, as you mentioned. A bankruptcy or Sheriffs sale is not a real indicator of consumer market pricing.
This is the main reason that we see items advertised for sale at ridiculous prices everywhere, just because unknowledgeable persons overpaid on places like Ebay as I have previoulsy suggested.
In any hobby, it is usually the mainstream collectors who set the market, not the fringe outsiders who bid prices up on items that they are unknowledgeable on.
Do you recall the discussion here recently on POW eBay cans?

[Jack Innes]

The results of the Littlefield auction can be seen at;

http://auctionsamerica.com/events/al...?SaleCode=LC14

[Rob Fast]

Cheers Rob